Yesterday Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska announced that he would not run for reelection in 2012. Since he is a Democrat, TV pundits have been announcing the end of Democratic control in the Senate. Nelson was not dependable when it came to voting with his caucus, so my gut reaction was no big loss. Another local pundit cautioned to be careful what you wish for, essentially agreeing with all the pundits.

After reading that blog late last night, I decided the first thing I would do this morning was find out what Nate Silver had to say on the issue. The first thing he said was that polling on Senate seats isn’t robust enough to plug into his model, which was based on baseball models for predicting winners. If it were closer to Election Day, he would be more confident in his predictions.

Bottom Line, Nate Silver agreed with the TV Pundits that Democrats could very well lose the Senate in 2012. In reading his analysis, one race especially stood out for me—Massachusetts.

Elizabeth Warren, champion of the middle class and a Democrat, is running against Scott Brown in Massachusetts for the seat that belonged to Teddy Kennedy for six decades. Silver calls that race a toss-up, but puts it in the Republican column in his final prediction. According to a Reuters poll, which was conducted December 1 – 6, Warren leads Brown 49% to 42%. That is a seven point lead in a poll with a 5.3% margin of error. Given that the lead is outside the margin of error by 1.7 points, I would have placed the win in the Democrat’s column.

Unlike Nate Silver, I didn’t consider every other Senate candidate poll or the trends on a state by state basis in coming to my optimistic conclusion, but I’m predicting that, thanks to Elizabeth Warren, the Democrats will neutralize the loss of Nelson.

Homework

Nate Silver's Analysis

Reuters Poll

Elizabeth Warren Campaign Site

President Obama ran on the idea of hope for the future. When he was elected, the future looked so bright that we all thought we’d have to wear shades. Now to see a bright future we need the proverbial rose colored glasses.

There’s been a lot of grumbling about Obama in the liberal blogosphere for quite some time now. I’ve refrained from the same kind of bashing because I know that he is better than the alternative would have been. Although can you imagine how distracted from the current debt crisis we would be if Palin were V.P.? Actually, not even I can go there—in all likelihood a Republican in the White House would have meant an automatic debt increase, just like it has been increased 70 times during my lifetime.

This time the GOP is playing with fire. For the first time since credit ratings were invented (even before the market crash of 1929), the safest credit in the world could be reduced by at least one rating agency to the lowest possible rating. We have Michelle Bachmann opining that it is no big deal; the government will still pay its interest. The boys on Wall Street, who have a pretty good idea what will happen if the U.S. loses its Aaa rating, have got to be wondering about the monster they have created with their donations to GOP candidates and conservative think tanks and PACs and 527s. I’d say let them suffer, but we will all be suffering along with them, and I’m no martyr.

What finally got my dander up is a report that Obama is not going to appoint Elizabeth Warren to head up the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Elizabeth Warren wrote the book. She is so popular that she even had a rap song written about her. But, in keeping with the GOP theme that if Obama wants it, it must be stopped, the GOP threatened to block her nomination. So Obama caved and decided to nominate someone who works for her. The good news is that the guy he’s appointing, Richard Cordray, is famous for investigating mortgage foreclosure practices. The bad news is that the GOP has already declared that they will block his nomination.

See, the GOP doesn’t want anything that Obama wants. They don’t want to upset the money bags on Wall Street again. They don’t want no stinking regulations that might help ordinary Americans get a voice about the financial products they use.

Homework

Timbuk 3 The Future's So Bright

Blogosphere Bashing in 2008

Warren Rap Song

Warren Bypassed