Romney slipped on a pink slip on his way to the New Hampshire coronation of his candidacy. The past two days have been a slug fest, with most of the blows landing on the GOP front runner. I was wondering when this story was finally going to surface. When I ran for office I ran on a platform of creating jobs. I had spent the previous decade working in an industry that used federal programs to encourage jobs creation in low-income communities. Most federal programs funding not-for-profit lenders have a requirement that a minimum number of jobs must be saved or created in exchange for the receipt of taxpayer money. The amount may have changed, but when I was involved in the business, there needed to be at least one job saved or created for each $50,000 of federal support. I always questioned the measurement of jobs saved. It was easy to see the creation of a job, because the number of jobs in a company would go up. It was harder to say that a job was saved. Usually, in the world of CDFIs, the definition of a job saved centered on a scenario where the owners of a company were planning to retire and would close the business if a new owner could not be found. Romney has been running on his experience in the private sector during a prolonged recession where all of America is focused on unemployment statistics and the brutal fact that high unemployment begets high default rates on mortgages. When more properties are sold through foreclosure than through real estate listings because a family is moving up, the net result is falling property values. All of us have seen equity in our homes disappear or shrink since 2008. Home ownership was once thought to be the safest possible investment other than cash, and now there are articles written about why renting may be better than owning. Romney’s private sector experience was not as a jobs creator, it was as a corporate raider. Sure, there were some investments where the company survived; the Weather Channel is one such investment. But there were many more companies that were dismantled, with the workers losing their jobs and pensions and investors pocketing millions. That story finally hit the pages of the Wall Street Journal, and the role that Romney played in destroying jobs, not creating them, is finally the hottest topic in campaign reporting. Bain didn’t measure its results by the number of jobs saved or created. The measurement was in the return on investment. After investing about $1-billion, the company had about $2.5-billion in gains. If the federal funding mandate for jobs were imposed, the expectation would have been that 20,000 jobs were created or saved. When Romney first ran for office, he said that number was 100,000 jobs. Later he said that number was 10,000 net jobs. At the latest number, the federal programs produce twice as many jobs as Romney did during his private sector experience with the same dollar investment, and the federal programs don’t destroy any jobs in the process. Homework Wall Street Journal Report on Bain CapitalReview of SBA Jobs under TARP
When the December Jobs Report came out, it was full of good news. America added jobs each and every month during 2011. December alone added 200,000 jobs, sustaining a six month trend of adding over 100,000 jobs monthly. It is good that we are adding jobs, and it is especially good that some of those jobs are in the manufacturing sector, where 225,000 jobs were added during 2011--the most growth in well paying manufacturing jobs since 1997. It is good that we are adding transportation jobs; America is moving goods again. It is good that the Rocky Mountain region is at the top of the heap when it comes to adding jobs. It is good that the unemployment rate is shrinking. But this is not a robust economy by any stretch of the imagination. Unemployment is still high at 8.5%.The belt-tightening by state and local governments continue shrinkage in the public sector jobs—12,000 of those jobs were lost in December. Of course, these jobs never existed in the first place. Those jobs were a figment of our imagination because “government doesn’t create jobs.” To put everything into perspective, 1.6-million jobs were added in 2011. But to get us back to where we were at the start of the recession, we need to add another 6-million jobs. Adding 6-million jobs is still short of the number of jobs we need to employ those entering the job market for the first time. During the Clinton administration we were adding 1-million jobs a month, and unemployment reached a level lower than economists had thought possible. Economists are saying that we may never achieve that kind of robust economy again. The Republicans blame Obama and his “failed” policies for the continued lackluster performance of the economy. They firmly believe that increasing taxes on billionaires would hamper jobs creation. But where are those jobs? The Bush tax cuts have been in place since they were signed into law on May 28, 2003. They were supposed to expire in 2010 because legislators knew that they would blow a hole in future budgets. It is now 2012, and they are still in place; they are still not creating jobs; and they did blow a huge hole in the budget. Although every politician ran on creating jobs in 2010, the Republican idea of creating jobs is to reduce regulations and taxes. Our own Representative Tipton crowed about his “jobs” bill, which assumed that allowing banks to delay recognizing bad loans would somehow magically create jobs. The deregulation of the finance industry didn’t create jobs; it destroyed the American Dream. Americans no longer believe they can work hard, own their own home, send their kids to college, or hand off to future generations the promise of a better life. It isn’t Obama’s policies that are harming our economy; it is Republican devotion to a fantasized image of Ronald Reagan. When economists were saying that we needed a huge stimulus to the economy in order to create jobs, the GOP insisted on a watered down version, then complained that it did just what it was projected to do. When it became apparent that health care costs were spiraling out of control, the GOP grudgingly allowed the Affordable Care Act to be signed into law, but only after stripping out most of the proposals that would have actually contained costs. Recently, 60 Minutes featured Eric Cantor in a piece designed to improve his image, which was damaged during the debt ceiling negotiations. When confronted with the fact that Ronald Reagan actually raised taxes, he denied it, and his off-stage staff yelled, “I won’t allow this to stand.” 60 Minutes then played a clip of Ronald Reagan saying that he compromised and raised taxes because it was the right thing to do. Republicans have gotten so lost in fantasy land, that they no longer know how to do the right thing. Tax cuts don’t create jobs, but they do increase deficits in economies that are already running in the red. Deregulation doesn’t create jobs but it does make the rich richer and the poor poorer. Republican fantasies have destroyed the American Dream. It is time for some reality. Homework Businessweek Report on JobsWikipedia Chart Jobs Created During Presidential Terms60 Minutes Interview
_ Yesterday the Western Colorado Congress of Mesa County held its annual meeting and election of officers for the coming year. The meeting was designed to focus on the work that has been done by members over the years, and to note the challenges that remain. I think that the gathered members were surprised to learn that their President, Benita Phillips, is a registered Republican. The perception is that no Republican could possibly work with a bunch of tree-hugging environmentalists. At one point during the evening, Benita launched into an impassioned speech about how no Republican, prior to the Reagan era, ever considered that there should be any kind of trade-off of jobs for environmental justice. Protecting the environment doesn’t destroy jobs, and in fact, may create them. One example is the work that Western Colorado Congress of Mesa County has done to protect the riverfront as it passes through Grand Junction. It is unfortunate that a perception exists that the work was all about destroying a local company, Brady Trucking. WCC-Mesa is not against any business, so long as it does not damage the long-term livability of our community. The work to protect the riverfront was in support of the Grand Junction master plan, which envisions the real estate along the Colorado River as an attractive place for families to recreate and for wildlife to continue to thrive. The master plan envisions a large park that is adjacent to the current Brady Trucking property. In fact, at the corner of the park closest to the Brady property, the plan calls for an amphitheatre, adequate for musical concerts, outdoor plays, and all manner of public meetings. Imagine if just that one enhancement existed. It isn’t hard to imagine businesses being attracted to the area to serve the concert-going public. In fact that is exactly what happened when San Antonio, TX cleaned up its water front and invested in walking and bike paths. Now on any evening in San Antonio, it is possible to see families walking along the riverfront, stopping in for dinner at one of many restaurants, and lingering over drinks on an outdoor patio, as the rest of the world drifts by. Right here in Colorado, Pueblo and Denver have both invested in making their riverfronts attractive and safe places for people to congregate. The businesses attracted to those redeveloped riverfronts employ lots and lots of people. Grand Junction’s riverfront can be just as appealing to both families and businesses, so long as it does not revert to an industrial junk yard. The only mammals that enjoy playing in junk yards are four legged rats. Western Colorado Congress of Mesa County is working on behalf of a vision of the riverfront that includes development and families. There is no vendetta against development. There is a vendetta against anything that threatens the health of the community or the river. P.S. Kevin King, Western Colorado Congress of Mesa County is not working on the Rocky Ford Cantaloupe problem because they are not grown in Mesa County. Given that you are against any kind of regulation, it is amusing that you think we should be working on cantaloupe regulation. For the record, we are gearing up to support local farmers who want to sell more product locally, including value added produce. Homework Grand Junction's Comprehensive Plan Western Colorado Congress of Mesa County
The Los Angeles Times published an article this week, which bore the title “Too Dirty to Fail.” The lead sentence is attention grabbing: “Since the beginning of this year, Republicans in the House have averaged roughly a vote every day the chamber has been in session to undermine the Environmental Protection Agency and our nation's environmental laws.” Politicians ran on a platform of “Jobs Now,” which seems to mean do everything possible to ensure that corporations have no regulations and citizens have no rights. Anything that multinational corporations don’t like is described as job killing. We constantly see that argument in reader’s comments to online versions of the Sentinel and letters to the editor. Citizens believe the story they’ve been told by captains of industry. Herman Cain said that Blacks have been brainwashed into voting for Democrats. Reality is that workers, especially here in Happy Valley, have been brainwashed into voting against their own best interests. People are convinced that we can’t have jobs and a vibrant economy if we regulate industries that pollute the air we breathe, the soil that grows our food, and the water we drink. Reality is that without regulations this High Desert that we call home would be uninhabitable. Without regulations the cost to clean up any environmental disaster falls to taxpayers, not the industrial polluters. Regulations protect human health against the excesses of corporate greed. Today the Denver Post is reporting that the U.S. 10th Circuit Court of Appeals issued a ruling paving the way to enforce Clinton’s roadless rules pertaining to 49 million acres of roadless forests and grasslands. In Colorado the ruling protects 4.4 million acres of National Forest, which represents about a third of Colorado’s National Forests. There are some exceptions incorporated in the ruling, including an exemption if fire danger is high. This ruling will irritate the oil and gas industry in Colorado, and they will send their attack dogs out to bark about jobs. Jane Danowitz, director of the Pew Environment Group's U.S. public lands program said, "Without the roadless rule, protection of these national forests would be left to a patchwork management system that in the past resulted in millions of acres lost to logging, drilling and other industrial development.” A “patchwork management system” is exactly what the industry wants, and why they were working on a separate Colorado roadless rule that allowed mining and drilling on public lands. In the GOP war on the environment, a battle was lost in federal court yesterday. But the environment hasn’t yet won the war. When you hear about getting rid of regulations because they kill jobs, ask which jobs are going to be lost and which pockets are going to be lined. You may find that the jobs being protected are jobs that have been outsourced to foreign soil. Homework Too Dirty to Fail ßread this! It debunks the theory that regulations cost jobs. Denver Post Story About Reinstatement of Roadless Rules Pew Charitable Trust's Environmental program
The good news is Colorado’s unemployment rate is 8.5%. The bad news is Colorado’s unemployment rate is 8.5%. Lame joke, I know, but it is true. The unemployment rate is essentially unchanged from July 2010 to July2011, but the factors impacting unemployment are not promising. Predictions are that Colorado will add about 10,000 jobs in 2011. In order to get Colorado back to where we were before the recession began, we need to add 150,000 jobs. With the addition of those jobs, Colorado could achieve a 4.5% unemployment rate in four years, which is considered “full employment.” During July 2011, Colorado’s private sector jobs increased by 4,200, but government jobs decreased by 900. We can expect government jobs to continue to slide as governments balance their budgets and increasingly pursue austerity programs. While the Tea Party will cheer smaller government, as evidenced by fewer jobs in the public sector, the individuals losing those jobs are homeowners and parents who will require assistance to survive. Who are those people losing jobs in the public sector? We can certainly expect some of them to be school teachers. Mill levies, which are a major component in school finance, are based on the value of local real estate. As real estate values decline, the taxes collected on the property also decline. There is a lag time between the decline in value and the decline in tax revenue. Mill levies are reevaluated, based on an 18 month period of sales of comparable properties, or a five year period if properties are so unusual that comparable sales are not frequently occurring events. Right now the assessor’s office is using data from January 1, 2009 to June 30, 2010 to decide current mill levies. There were 1,290 foreclosure filings in 2009. There were 767 foreclosure filings in the first two quarters of 2010. Each foreclosure carries its own lag time. Homeowners have the right to redeem their property out of foreclosure, which seldom happens. But the grace period means that it is at least one quarter from the date of a foreclosure filing to the time that there is a foreclosure sale. It is the sale that determines the new property value, and the mill levy on that piece of real estate. In hard economic times, the only buyers at foreclosure sales are the lender trying to get access to their collateral, or bottom feeders looking to make a quick buck when the market turns around. Even bottom feeders stay out of the market if economic recovery is uncertain. The net result is that the value of the property almost always drops in a foreclosure. All of these foreclosures mean that the school district is going to have less revenue. Less revenue for the school district means they will have to cut expenses, and salaries are a very big piece of school budgets. That means that some teachers will lose their jobs. Teachers who lose their jobs may find it impossible to pay their mortgages. Thus continues the downward spiral of job losses resulting in foreclosures, resulting in fewer people buying things from local retailers, resulting in fewer sales for wholesalers and manufacturers, resulting in private sector layoffs, resulting in foreclosures… There is nothing in plans promoted by Republicans that will change this dynamic. Regulations do not change mill levies. Regulations do not change local government’s requirement to balance their budgets. Scott Tipton’s plan to change how banks account for loan losses will not change foreclosure rates. Passing trade agreements and improving patent protection will not change foreclosure rates. Nothing will change foreclosure rates until workers find jobs and have enough confidence to buy things. FDR had it right--create a public works program. Governments should be spending money now, not giving tax breaks to the people who least need government help. Republican policies are increasing the gap between the haves and the have-nots. We are heading into a new feudal era where the wealthy will gobble up properties in foreclosure. Workers will have to pay them rent in order to live indoors. The choke-hold on workers will solidify with high rents and low or no wages. If current trends continue, workers will become slaves to the property owners with no way out. Homework Colorado Jobs Everything You Never Wanted to Know About Real Estate Assessments in Mesa County Foreclosures in Mesa County Feudal Society
At Tipton’s Townhall meeting, handouts were distributed that describe the work that Tipton has been doing in Washington. Tipton is the Chairman of a Subcommittee, which has allowed him to hold hearings with titles like Drilling for a Solution: Finding Ways to Curtail the Crushing Effect of High Gas Prices on Small Business and Regulatory Injury and How USDA’s Proposed GIPSA Rule Hurts America’s Small Businesses. Come September he’ll be hosting a hearing right here in Grand Junction: Are Excessive Energy Regulations and Policies Limiting Energy Independence, Killing Jobs and Increasing Prices for Consumers? I know it is naïve to think that a hearing would be about discovering facts. It is hard to imagine how any new information will come out of hearings where the title directs participants to the desired answer and presenters are carefully chosen to present the desired point of view. At the Townhall meeting, Tipton made a point of saying that not all regulations are bad, but his handouts tell a different story. Tipton truly believes that regulation kills jobs, especially in the oil and gas industry. He even believes that the price of gas is tied to regulation, not market conditions. His main plan to create jobs is to do away with regulations. He’s proposed a bill that would require agencies to report to congress when any rule made by that agency becomes obsolete, or is in conflict with another regulation. I guess he doesn’t know that every regulation is subject to a public comment period, and that those comments are actually taken into consideration before the regulation is implemented. Certainly obsolete and conflicting regulations are discussed in public comment periods by industry spokesmen. The one plan that sparked some interest for me, until I read it, was the Capital Access on Main Street Act, which Tipton is sponsoring with Ed Perlmutter and Mike Coffman. Tipton claims that it has bi-partisan support and will create jobs. The bill’s number is HR1356, and it has been introduced and moved to committee for review. It is hard for me to think of this bill as a jobs bill, since what it does is change how banks under $10,000,000,000 account for bad loans. In the current regulatory environment banks must write off a loan as soon as a loss is certain or when it becomes 90 days past due—which ever event comes first. This bill allows banks to take the loss over a seven year period. The impact would be to overstate the profits of banks by hiding losses in equity. In theory banks with higher equity levels will make more loans to small businesses, thus creating jobs. The theory doesn’t hold much water and is reminiscent of how regulators approached the Savings and Loan Industry before that industry crashed. Regulators allowed S&Ls to put what I called “funny money” on their books by issuing certificates to S&Ls, which were actually loans from the regulator. The certificates could be counted as equity, and the S&L looked like it was well capitalized, when in fact it was bankrupt. I’m sure we all remember what happened then. This bill ignores one other fact. Small Businesses say that they don’t need loans, they need people to buy their products and services. It doesn’t really matter if money is available, even if it is “funny money,” if there is no reason to borrow because there are no sales. Bottom line, HR1356 will not create any jobs, and it just might tank the banking industry again. Then again, it may never get out of committee. Tipton’s main solution for jobs is get rid of regulations and the tired old Drill Baby Drill, with “reasonable” regulations because everybody likes clean air and clean water. Tipton intends to introduce legislation to authorize hydropower development on all BLM conduits, including canals. He plans to reduce regulations in order to make development of hydropower projects more economically feasible. Can’t wait to see that one. Homework: HR1356 Capital Access on Main Street WSJ Article Small Firms Hunger for Sales not Credit Book for Sale that Discusses the Economics of Hydropower
The Tea Party held the full faith and credit of the United States of America hostage, and the White House surrendered. Enjoy your victory now, but don’t expect a return to prosperity any time soon. The GOP answer to every problem, since Regan, has been to cut taxes and decrease regulation. The GOP blindly follows this doctrine of deliberate blindness, even when the facts prove that it doesn’t’ work. Under Bush the largest tax reduction in the history of the nation passed. Instead of it resulting in more jobs, we now have the highest unemployment rate this nation has seen since the great Depression. Under Bush and Cheney, who were both former oil and gas men, the oil and gas industry became the driving force behind all federal policies. They even tried to dismantle the EPA library so that all the dirty secrets of the industry would be buried. Even after the horrific spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the mantra of the GOP continues to be “deregulate”. In the last election cycle, Americans were feeling the pain of high unemployment, and decided that they wanted divided government. What they didn’t see coming was a freshman class of Representatives who literally would fiddle while the nation burned. They are so determined to make government smaller that if Washington caught fire they would call it a win, and let it burn to the ground. The deal struck by Obama will not improve a thing in our economy, other than making the suffering of ordinary Americans continue, and likely increase. The only bright spot I can see in the deal is that there won’t be any new debt ceiling fights until after the next election. That should make Wall Street investors less uncertain, and stop the free fall in the markets that we watched last week. I’m confused by the dates in the deal. A bi-partisan super committee will decide on additional cuts by November. Congress hasn’t passed a budget for 2012, which begins October 1. So, a budget passed in September is going to be cut in November? And if congress can’t decide on the cuts to be made, there is a trigger that will cut every program until a specified dollar amount of cuts is reached. That removes all motivation to reach a budget deal by October 1, so we are looking at another stalemate in the budgeting process, and nothing has been gained. Let’s look at some facts: Unemployment is high. Cutting federal budgets, and by extension state budgets, is going to cause governments, who DO create jobs, to lay-off more people. During the last budget cuts locally, we were told that cuts had reached the point of lopping off limbs. The path that we have embarked upon contains no incentives for anyone, government or private sector, to create jobs. Our debt level is unsustainable at current levels of unemployment. The fastest way to improve the debt picture is to do what American families do—get a second job. Economists tell us that there is no way that the national debt can be paid down without increases in revenue. But any discussion of increases in revenue results in hostage taking by the extreme right. They may get their wish and drown government. I wish I knew with what they plan to replace government. Anarchy isn’t very appealing to me. Homework: White House Fact Sheet About the Deal Winners and Losers in the Deal Bloomberg Describes the Lay of the Land What is Happening and Expected to Continue Happening in States Current Unemployment Rates Government Analysis of Jobs Market Historic Look at Trends in Private Public Sector Jobs Public Sector Jobs Threaten Recovery
The Headlines today in both the Sentinel and the Denver Post are all about Colorado’s Governor calling the Speaker of the House and the President of the Senate into his office and telling them to stop messing around with the must pass regulatory review bill or he would call them immediately into a special session. Clearly that got the attention of the Republicans because they immediately backed off their position, removed a bill amendment that helped predatory lenders, and voted unanimously to approve the bill, thus ending this legislative session. Now that the session is over until January of next year, we will be seeing more of our legislators at events here in the Grand Valley. When we do, we need to ask them to spend less time bickering and staking out no-win positions. We need to tell them to start focusing on jobs for Coloradans. We need to ask Steve King, Laura Bradford, and Ray Scott how much time they spend listening to ALEC instead of listening to us. (Back in February Steve King responded to an E-mail that I sent him that he would be guided by ALEC. Laura Bradford noted at a meeting I attended that she got legislative ideas at an ALEC conference in Washington. When Ray Scott was a candidate he once said he was surprised and disgusted to learn that there were people willing to write his legislation for him. He may or may not have been referring to ALEC.) Speaking of jobs, Hickenlooper is going to a high tech company today to celebrate their jobs creation record. They help companies gather and report data to the SEC, which we should all be celebrating. By standardizing the reporting, the companies can spend less time on these regulations and yet investors will be able to read company reports knowing that information is reported uniformly across industries and companies. Homework GOP Backs Off--Session EndsPredatory LendingALEC Writes Legislation for State LawmakersHickenlooper Celebrates Rivet Software
Representative Pete Lee, of Colorado Springs, sponsored a bill in the House that I would have gladly sponsored in the Senate had I been elected. It died yesterday in a house committee. The bill would have set up a funding authority charged with raising money to loan to small businesses in Colorado. The criteria for receiving funding included the creation of well paying jobs. It also required that funds be deposited in a Colorado, not Wall Street bank. Unfortunately as I write this the actual committee votes have not been attached to the bill’s E-version. My guess is that it was killed in committee along partisan lines, with Republicans voting against a Democrat’s proposal. I also did not listen to the hearing, so I don’t know what the pro and con arguments were. I do know it was a good idea. I do know that it would have been revenue neutral. I do know that it would have set aside some money for really small micro-loans to micro-businesses—the kind frequently operated by women working out of their homes, while trying to keep their family secure. Colorado supporting entrepreneurs is a great way to create jobs. Not that we need any, since unemployment in Mesa County just hit a new high of 11.1%. Homework Text of Bill Fiscal Analysis HB 11-1266 Bills Killed on March 12
It seems there is a deal to avoid a government shutdown on March 4. The GOP has decided to take all of the budget cuts recommended by Obama, and forget about the budget gutting they were proposing. A cartoon that popped into my in-box this morning depicted the GOP plan as a bloated airplane in flight with the captain making an announcement that he was shutting the engines down since everyone was fighting over the peanuts. There is a basic disconnect between the political ideology of the GOP and the reality of how economies work. In Mother Goose language, no economist thinks that the quickest way to create jobs is to cut taxes, or that cutting spending during a downturn is effective in creating jobs. In fact, study after study shows that it is the least effective policy tool. One of the most lackluster decades in recent history has been the decade since the Bush tax cuts were enacted. Anybody remember the promise that wealth would trickle down? With unemployment still hovering around 10%, that didn’t work out so well, did it? One of the really nice things about beating your head against a wall is that it feels so good when you stop. It is time to stop beating our head against the wall in order to continue increasing the income gap between workers and greedy Wall Street bankers. See, economies need productive workers a lot more than they need King Midas in his castle counting his gold coins. Now the DEMs will vote for a budget bill, and the GOP can claim they took $4-billion in spending out of the budget. The bloated airplane stays air-borne, but the engines are still sputtering, because America still isn’t back at full employment. And we’re still fighting over peanuts all the way into the 2012 budget. There is another potential positive if a deal is cut--a fight over raising the $14 trillion debt limit may be avoided. When government spends more than it takes in, the result is increasing debt. We’ve been spending more than we’ve been taking in, not because of things like Social Security, which is paid for by employee and employer payroll taxes, but because of two wars being fought—off balance sheet during the Bush years. It was the first time in history that a nation went to war and decreased taxes at the same time. Stupid economic policy. You don’t increase spending on things like a war, blast a hole in tax revenues and expect a balanced budget. Failure to increase the debt limit could result in U.S. Bonds being downgraded, because the U.S. could default on its EXISTING debt. According to an Atlantic article, “US bonds have been the gold standard, with zero risk of default. You introduce even the tiniest little bit of doubt into the minds of ultraconservative investors, and that's potentially disastrous. It hurts our ability to raise money without a risk premium.” So the net result is that it is harder to sell U.S. bonds, and they no longer are issued at low cost to the U.S. Government. They cost more, so there is more pressure on the budget. Dumb. Not to mention, China might be irritated when all the U.S. debt they hold is downgraded. There is plenty of drama left in the budgeting process. Stay tuned. __________________________________________________________ P.S. Gasland was a nominee, but didn’t take home the Oscar. Evidently the oil and gas industry did a better lobbying job than director Fox did. Some things never change. Homework Economists Talking About How to Create Jobs September 2010 CBS Story About Income Gap Budget Fight November 2010 Atlantic Story About Debt Ceilings Oscar
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