I had been hearing rumblings about Santorum making a strong showing in Colorado, and it turns out the rumblings were accurate. I remember thinking that Santorum could really connect with people after his speech in Iowa. Given the continuing strength of the Tea Party in Colorado, I’m not surprised that he took Colorado.

This election season has been way too much fun! Last night Santorum cleaned Romney’s clock in three states. I’m sure that Romney will now hit the accelerator on his move to the right. There will be a whole month of no primary contests to check the speed and direction, and the media will telegraph his every move.  The Newt will be moving to the right also, since he is convinced he is destined to be President.

The Komen experience with Planned Parenthood didn’t teach these guys anything. They still think that the loudest voices in the GOP are representative of voters in the general election. But the loudest voices are the fundamentalist Christians in a nation that is increasingly becoming more like Europe, where Church is not a weekly thing and does not dominate the thinking of the people. And then there are those pesky birth control and women’s health issues.

The Catholic Church is going to continue to raise a stink about birth control, and both the media and the GOP candidates are going to listen to them. Why anyone would put a lot of credence in a bunch of guys who hang out mostly with other guys and dress in medieval white, red and black robes while continuing to get caught up in scandals involving sex with altar boys is beyond my comprehension. For sure their own female parishioners are ignoring them when it comes to women’s health, as are many of their nuns.

Santorum, as the latest Anybody-But-Romney candidate, is going to get a lot more media attention, now. His war on birth control will become more widely known, and he will start to fall in the polls. None of the current crop of Republicans seems to remember that Ken Buck was defeated in Colorado because of his war on women. They have even forgotten the recent loss of a Personhood amendment in conservative Mississippi.

Homework

Atheism America Religious Right

Romney slipped on a pink slip on his way to the New Hampshire coronation of his candidacy. The past two days have been a slug fest, with most of the blows landing on the GOP front runner. I was wondering when this story was finally going to surface.

When I ran for office I ran on a platform of creating jobs. I had spent the previous decade working in an industry that used federal programs to encourage jobs creation in low-income communities. Most federal programs funding not-for-profit lenders have a requirement that a minimum number of jobs must be saved or created in exchange for the receipt of taxpayer money. The amount may have changed, but when I was involved  in the business, there needed to be at least one job saved or created for each $50,000 of federal support.

I always questioned the measurement of jobs saved. It was easy to see the creation of a job, because the number of jobs in a company would go up. It was harder to say that a job was saved. Usually, in the world of CDFIs, the definition of a job saved centered on a scenario where the owners of a company were planning to retire and would close the business if a new owner could not be found.

Romney has been running on his experience in the private sector during a prolonged recession where all of America is focused on unemployment statistics and the brutal fact that high unemployment begets high default rates on mortgages. When more properties are sold through foreclosure than through real estate listings because a family is moving up, the net result is falling property values. All of us have seen  equity in our homes disappear or shrink since 2008. Home ownership was once thought to be the safest possible investment other than cash, and now there are articles written about why renting may be better than owning.

Romney’s private sector experience was not as a jobs creator, it was as a corporate raider. Sure, there were some investments where the company survived; the Weather Channel is one such investment. But there were many more companies that were dismantled, with the workers losing their jobs and pensions and investors pocketing millions. That story finally hit the pages of the Wall Street Journal, and the role that Romney played in destroying jobs, not creating them, is finally the hottest topic in campaign reporting.

Bain didn’t measure its results by the number of jobs saved or created. The measurement was in the return on investment. After investing about $1-billion, the company had about $2.5-billion in gains. If the federal funding mandate for jobs were imposed, the expectation would have been that 20,000 jobs were created or saved. When Romney first ran for office, he said that number was 100,000 jobs. Later he said that number was 10,000 net jobs. At the latest number, the federal programs produce twice as many jobs as Romney did during his private sector experience with the same dollar investment, and the federal programs don’t destroy any jobs in the process.

Homework

Wall Street Journal Report on Bain Capital

Review of SBA Jobs under TARP

It is almost 2012, and elections are almost upon us. As soon as the party dresses are hung up, and the confetti and noisemakers are put away, people in Iowa will be going into their famed caucuses to choose who gets delegates to the GOP convention in Tampa Bay Florida.

Even though I haven’t written much about the GOP debates, it isn’t because I haven’t enjoyed the spectacle.  At one point I even tweeted that the GOP had been invaded by Ringling Brothers. The only candidates that might appeal to the independent voter never made it out of the basement. Gary Johnson got so frustrated with his lack of respect from the media and people responding to polls that he jumped from the GOP to the Libertarian party. Tim Pawlenty jumped off the bandwagon early on, perhaps because he has too much Minnesota Nice to enjoy mixing it up with the  crazies at the top of the polls. Jon Huntsman is hanging in there, but I suspect that he believes that his real chance will come in 2016.

The current front runners, with the possible exception of Romney, have enough crazy genes to provide any self respecting progressive with ample entertainment. 

Ron Paul’s aversion to anything gay has landed him in hot water, even with his college age supporters. As though that wasn’t enough, newsletters from decades ago have exposed the racist side of Representative Paul.  Paul’s history has plenty of additional entertaining facts: He ran as a Libertarian. He is anti-war. He was banned from Republican debates during the last presidential primary season.

And then there is the Newt: he wants to be the leader of the free world, but can’t even figure out how to get on the ballot in the state in which he votes. Newt’s ego is so big that he blames the “failed system” in Virginia for his lack of organization. When his entire campaign team resigned, the Newt said that he was so special he could get elected without a traditional campaign team. He even went so far as to say that he was destined to be president.

I don’t pretend to understand how Republicans think, but it is increasingly becoming apparent that Romney will be the GOP candidate, even though most of the circus has revolved around the concept of Anybody-But-Romney. My personal favorite Romney story during this run-up to the Iowa caucuses was when “I’m not a witch” Christine O’Donnell threw her support to Romney, then immediately damaged his credibility by saying that he hadn’t changed his mind since the last time he changed his mind. Priceless.

As a dyed in the wool Democrat, I’m equally at a loss to understand how independents think. Understanding independents is the key to winning elections in 2012, as they are the fastest growing voter group. Right here in Mesa County there are more independents than there are Republicans and there are more Republicans than there are Democrats. My theory has been that if one is over 50 and an independent it is because they are a disenchanted Republican, concerned because the party is too centrist. If one is under 30 and an independent, it is because they just don’t like labels of any kind.

Obama will in all probability win reelection. His approval numbers went up when he won the recent battle over extending unemployment benefits and a payroll tax holiday. They also went up after he got Bin Laden. Both of those fights will play prominently in his reelection bid. And he has the advantage of being a Democrat.

USA today recently reported on a trend that shows independent voters growing at the expense of both parties—more than 2.5 million people have left the two major parties. Despite the increases in independent voters nationally, there are still more registered Democrats who will be stepping into the voting booth. According to the same article, “Registered Democrats still dominate the political playing field with more than 42 million voters, compared to 30 million Republicans and 24 million independents.” In Colorado Democrats have lost the most and independents have gained the most.

Homework

Denver Post Story About Iowa Caucus

GOP Convention 2012

USA Today Story About Voter Registration

A mentor of mine in the banking industry used to advise me to listen both to what is said and what is not said. Applying that philosophy to the Robert Gibbs interview on Meet the Press today reveals some interesting possibilities.

Gibbs was asked if the Obama campaign was afraid of a Bachmann campaign, as Bachmann opined in a recent speech. Gibbs replied with a description of all the tall tales being told by Rick Perry. What wasn’t said? By not even using Bachmann’s name in the reply, Gibbs told you that Obama has no fear of Bachmann, but he is concerned about Rick Perry. If you listen carefully to the rest of the interview you will see that Gibbs, who is on the show to deliver Obama’s message, told you who Obama is building a case against—Perry and Romney.

On the same show, Governor Mitch Daniels was asked if he would work to get any of the current candidates elected. His reply was that he would work for the eventual nominee. What wasn’t said? Daniels is hoping that someone else will enter the race, and he will gladly work for that unknown candidate. Later in the interview, Mitch Daniels didn’t say that Paul Ryan should run, but it is clear that Daniels was sending a message to Ryan—we’re behind you, get in the race.

In political training camps this is called the Pivot. When asked a question, candidates are told to stay on message and say what they came to say. I’m a horrible candidate. When asked a question I try to answer the question to the best of my ability. You’ve heard me say that Bachmann is a better candidate than I am because she stays on message. That doesn’t mean that I believe she’d be a better President, just that she follows the rules of a good campaign.

Quite a few people have asked me recently if I am considering another run for office. I keep saying no. But I’ll tell you that it won’t sit well with me if not one Democrat is willing to stand up to run for the two open county commissioner seats or the two Colorado House seats in 2012. Is it possible to be a bad candidate in four races at once?

Homework

The Hill Story About Bachmann's Claim

Staying on Message Advice for the Job Seeker

New Hampshire traditionally holds the first primary in the nation, so a presidential candidate debate there is big news even if all of the potential candidates haven’t yet entered the race; even if the softball questions included what pizza style they prefer; and even if all but one of them stuck to GOP talking points. (God Bless Ron Paul.) Most pundits are declaring that Michelle Bachmann won that debate. I suspect that is because so many talking heads expected her to be a bit of a know nothing, or at least make one of her famous misstatements. If one performs better than expectations, plus officially announces a candidacy in the opening statement, one might grab a headline or two.

But the headline that grabbed my attention this morning was the focus of the Obama campaign. Evidently on the wall at campaign headquarters in Chicago is a list of candidates, complete with their schedules. The men the Obama campaign are following: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and John Huntsman. The assumption is that they are three main-stream candidates who have the wherewithal to attract money.

I blogged, quite some time ago, about Huntsman. It is my opinion that he is the candidate most likely to attract independent voters, which is what the 2012 election will come down to. Even my favorite Troll told me yesterday that he has officially left the Republican Party, and is now registered as an independent. Whether he eventually gets the nomination depends on how the GOP manages its primary voters, including those of the Tea Party persuasion. Huntsman isn’t the darling of the extreme right, but he brings to the table a good track record in Utah, and more than a passing knowledge of China.

If it is about the economy, stupid, then the elephant in the room is China. They own our debt. They are buying up resources all over the world. They make what we no longer make at home. The supreme irony is that Obama sent Huntsman to China on his behalf. Of course that is also a black mark against Huntsman in some circles. GOP primary voter circles.

Homework

Bachmann Winner At New Hampshire Debate

Obama Focus: Romney, Pawlenty, Huntsman