Yesterday Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska announced that he would not run for reelection in 2012. Since he is a Democrat, TV pundits have been announcing the end of Democratic control in the Senate. Nelson was not dependable when it came to voting with his caucus, so my gut reaction was no big loss. Another local pundit cautioned to be careful what you wish for, essentially agreeing with all the pundits.

After reading that blog late last night, I decided the first thing I would do this morning was find out what Nate Silver had to say on the issue. The first thing he said was that polling on Senate seats isn’t robust enough to plug into his model, which was based on baseball models for predicting winners. If it were closer to Election Day, he would be more confident in his predictions.

Bottom Line, Nate Silver agreed with the TV Pundits that Democrats could very well lose the Senate in 2012. In reading his analysis, one race especially stood out for me—Massachusetts.

Elizabeth Warren, champion of the middle class and a Democrat, is running against Scott Brown in Massachusetts for the seat that belonged to Teddy Kennedy for six decades. Silver calls that race a toss-up, but puts it in the Republican column in his final prediction. According to a Reuters poll, which was conducted December 1 – 6, Warren leads Brown 49% to 42%. That is a seven point lead in a poll with a 5.3% margin of error. Given that the lead is outside the margin of error by 1.7 points, I would have placed the win in the Democrat’s column.

Unlike Nate Silver, I didn’t consider every other Senate candidate poll or the trends on a state by state basis in coming to my optimistic conclusion, but I’m predicting that, thanks to Elizabeth Warren, the Democrats will neutralize the loss of Nelson.

Homework

Nate Silver's Analysis

Reuters Poll

Elizabeth Warren Campaign Site

Colorado has been talking about fracking and fracking fluids for a long time. How these chemicals are treated was part of the infamous “Ritter Regulations.” We’ve seen water wells polluted in our county, and people have had to deal with horribly debilitating illnesses as a result of drinking polluted water.

Recently there has been a seismic shift in the thinking about fracking fluids, caused by the huge increase in activity in the Marcellus Shale gas deposits in the watershed of New York City. It is no longer a rural Colorado problem, it is a national problem.

There are regional differences in how the water produced in drilling operations is disposed. In Colorado, we have pits, where pit liners have their own controversy, and water evaporates, leaving solids that are mysteriously made to disappear. But in Pennsylvania and other states in the vicinity of Marcellus Shale the industry is disposing of this water by taking it to water treatment facilities. The sheer volume of polluted water plus the chemical make-up of that water is overwhelming the local water treatment plants. To get an idea of the problem, imagine that all the water trucks currently bound for evaporative pits in Utah were suddenly lined up at the Clifton water treatment facility. I think there might be a flood in the valley!

The water in Pennsylvania is reported to have dangerous levels of benzene (causes cancer), plus radioactive chemicals strontium and barium. If the water is radioactive in Pennsylvania, there is a reasonable chance that it is radioactive in Colorado where we live among naturally occurring uranium deposits.

The battle in congress doesn’t seem to be about protecting our limited supply of clean water, but rather about differing ideologies. The Republicans want to defund the EPA because they believe that states can do a better job of oversight than can the federal government. The may have a point in states like Wyoming, where the chemical mix in fracking fluids must be disclosed. In Colorado the mix is only disclosed to emergency responders, when there is a spill or other event where water is threatened. The Democrats think protecting clean water for every American is more important than kissing the collective butt of oil and gas executives. So, the House, which is controlled by Republicans, talks about doing away with the EPA, while the Senate, which is controlled by Democrats, talks about increasing EPA regulation on fracking fluids. Neither of them is talking about industry best practices, like requiring green fracking fluids and cementing wells from top to bottom.

To me there is a simple message here. Democrats need to take back the House. Tipton, you are toast. You ran as a centrist, but have proven yourself to be a flaming right wing nut that lies to constituents about everything from the importance of the EPA to your support for Medicare.

Homework

Fracking Hearing in the Senate

Sentinel Opinion Piece about Tipton (Subscription Required)